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Monday, August 29, 2011

Fantasy Draft Recap


After a miserable 2009, RomoBall rebounded with a solid 2010 that yielded one championship and two playoff appearances across three leagues. As a result of uncharacteristic patience, ChalmSkinn Productions entered 2011 with Vincent Jackson as a keeper. 10-Team PPR, with the following players held over from 2010: Jackson (8th) Mike Wallace (9th) Green Bay Defense (10th) Tim Hightower (11th) Darren McFadden (12th) Ben Roethlisberger (12th) and Josh Freeman (16th).

Premium RBs flew off the board in normal fashion from 1-5, and even with LeSean McCoy and his 78 receptions a year ago available, something about that flakjacket made me pass. Primo runners Adrian, Arian, Ray, Jamaal and CJ all off the board, I decided to take a premium receiver. Down to Andre vs. Roddy, I went with Andre, making him the first non-RB taken. McCoy would have been the logical pick with a WR already on the roster, bur for reasons unexplained, I did not want to enter 2011 with Vincent as my WR1. Mission accomplished. Vick went next, then Mendenhall, LeSean slipped to 9th, the steal of the first round, and last year's champ hauled in Roddy White and MegaTRON at the turn.

Round 2
11. Calvin Johnson. I like this pick. MegaTRON has a cool nickname, proved he can do it with just about anyone at QB in '10, and has Stafford healthy in '11.

12. Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers should be the top pointgetter in most formats this year. Outstanding at 12, acceptable anywhere after 5.

13. Peyton Hillis. I heart Hillis. Someone really wanted the talented, though not 13th overall-worthy Hillis.

14. Michael Turner. TD machine is fine with me in the middle of the 2nd. More appropriate than previous years where he's cracked the top-5.

15. Maurice Jones-Drew. In 2010, MJD crossed the 1,300 threshold on the ground in just 14 games on a down year for the Jags. Some risk, but high reward here.

16. Drew Brees. Looking at the next shelf of WR/RB, a fantastic pick.

17. Larry Fitzgerald. The beginning of the next shelf of WR/RB. Kolb should help.

18. Philip Rivers. Just a fool to believe that he'd slip to me round three...

19. Miles Austin. Not sure about this one. He has monster games but can also disappear. Dez Bryant is the cheaper, better buy in Big D.

20. Hakeem Nicks. The main event in New York and with Boss gone, now primary Red Zone target, too.

Round 3

21. DeSean Jacson. Quality pick here, as the owner of pick #1 must remain vigilant to not become AP, Inc. Nicks and D-Jax are quality additions.

22. Shonn Greene. I don't like this pick.

23. Greg Jennings. Doesn't anything Green Bay just make you feel warm and safe?

24. Matt Forte. Forte had a quietly productive 2010. He and the Bears should take another step forward in year two of the MME. (Mike Martz Era)

25. LeGarrette Blount. LeGarrette was taken from the top of my queue. He's in for a huge year for the Bucs.

26. Tom Brady. LeGarrette gone, and with a bad case of I-don't-trust-Steven-Jackson, I took Brady, the last premier option at QB.

27. Steven Jackson. A fine pick at 27 for any owner other than me. Should be fine and could really shine on a Rams team headed in the right direction.

28. Reggie Wayne. As solid as they come over the past decade, his elite status depends on Peyton Manning, and there are far worse people to have your hopes on.

29. Dwayne Bowe. A touchdown monster with 12 in 2010, Bowe is a popular pick in traditional leagues and makes a strong WR2 or a low-end WR1 option.

30. Ahmad Bradshaw. Ahmad has seperated himself from Jacobs in the Giants' backfield, and the bigger Jacobs isn't a goal line back either.

Round 4

31. Frank Gore. After locking up Roddy and Calvin on the first turn (and McFadden as a keeper), last year's champ fills out his front five with a Gore in round four.

32. Anquan Boldin. Anquan's second year with Flacco could be a big one.

33. Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd's beastly 2010 proves that stud wideouts can be found on waivers or late in drafts, so why use your 4th rounder on Brandon? Don't expect a repeat.

34. Mike Williams. Josh Freeman threw 25 TD and just 6 INT in 2010, and Mike Williams 2.0 is his favorite target. We like the pick, but with name brands still on the board, seems a round early.

35. Brandon Marshall. The name brand on the board at wideout. I read recently that Brandon is entering 2011, 'with a chip on his shoulder,' and nearly shnarfed my skittles. One of the chippiest players in the game, Brandon had 86/1000 on a bad year and at 27, is just now entering his prime.

36. Felix Jones. The way is clear for Felix to finally do Jerry proud.

37. Antonio Gates. Another of the name brands I'd take ahead of MW2 and Felix. By round 4 the top-flight WR/RBs are off the board. Why not take a guy that can put up WR numbers as a TE? There is some risk here, but Gates a warrior and he's healthy right now.

38. DeAngelo Williams. 30 Helens Agree: DeAngelo is too risky for Round 4!

39. Tony Romo. T.O. and Roy Williams officially out of his life, Romo must feel like Forrest when his magic legs break off. He'll be unleashed this year with Austin, Bryant and Witten all having big years.

40. Dez Bryant. A great pick 21 slots after Miles Austin, likely has the better year.

Round 5

41. Mark Ingram. The 2009 Heisman winner is the most exciting rookie back in fantasy this year. Some risk + tremendous upside = Round 5. Don't wait much longer.

42. Ryan Grant. Grant looks like an early bust candidate. The Packers seem to prefer James Starks at the moment.

43. Stevie Johnson. Stevie can see. He can see just fine. We can't see him repeating his breakout 2010, but he has size and if we know anything, we know this: The Bills will be down in games.

44. Jahvid Best. You can do better here.

45. Jeremy Maclin. Positive: You get a piece of the Philly offense. Negative: It isn't Vick, McCoy or Jackson. He can be had later.

46. Knowshon Moreno. Ingram off the board forces the Knowshon pick as a passable RB2.

47. Jermichael Finley. Jermichael is enormous. So is his potential.

48. Peyton Manning. Finally. Even if he's not back until Week 5, a steal in Round 5.

49. Jason Witten. The third TE taken after Gates, Finley. Makes sense.

50. Wes Welker. Should get back to 100+ catches after decent post-ACL year.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Preview: 76-100

76. Ian Kinsler, 2B - TEX.
77. Dan Haren, SP - LAA.
78. Mariano Rivera, RP - NYY.
79. Joakim Soria, RP - KC.
80. Brian Wilson, RP - SF.
81. Matt Cain, SP - SF.
82. Clay Buchholz, SP - BOS.
83. Cole Hamels, SP - PHI.
84. Jonathan Sanchez, SP - SF.
85. Jonathan Papelbon, RP - BOS.
86. Carlos Marmol, RP - CHC.
87. Jonathan Broxton, RP - LAD.
88. Pedro Alvarez, 3B - PIT.
89. Francisco Liriano, SP - MIN.
90. Yovani Gallardo, SP - MIL.
91. Roy Oswalt, SP - PHI.
92. Jason Werth, OF - WAS
93. Jay Bruce, OF - CIN.
94. Curtis Granderson, OF - NYY.
95. Shane Victorino, OF - PHI.
96. Starlin Castro, SS - CHC.
97. Nick Markakis, OF - BAL.
98. Matt Wieters, C - BAL.
99. Chris Young, OF - AZ.
100. Jimmy Rollins, SS - PHI.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Preview: 51-75

51. Justin Verlander, SP - DET. Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games and pitched 200+ innings in four of his first five seasons. His awful 2008 (11-17, 4.84 ERA) long behind him after stellar performances in '09 and '10, Detroit's ace is in his fantasy prime.

52. Clayton Kershaw, SP - LAD. Clayton's rise to the top of the Dodgers' rotation has been nothing short of meteoric. Selected 7th overall in the draft just five years ago, Kershaw is now the ace in LA. Even more impressive than sub-3 ERAs in his first two full seasons are the .200 and .214 BA against he has allowed in the same span. The most impressive stat on Clayton? He turns 23 on March 19th.

53. Cliff Lee, SP - PHI. Lee became a fantasy mainstay after his incredible 22-3 season with the Indians in '08. In '09 and '10 he was the hired gun, going to the World Series with the Phillies and Rangers. Four teams in two years and just 25 wins means you shouldn't overpay for Lee, but his return to Philadelphia signals a return to the 18-20 win range.

54. Alexei Ramirez, SS - CWS. At 29, Alexei enters his fourth season as one of the most consistent shortstops in fantasy. For his career, he's averaged .283/18/71/13, and this has come while getting acclimated to the U.S., the major leagues, moving to 2B, moving back to SS, all while moving up and down the lineup, including lots of time in the 9-hole. If Alexei can bump his OBP even a little bit, White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen may bat him higher, making him an even more dynamic 5-tool player.

55. Alex Rios, CF - CWS. If there's a good chance Alex and Alexei have nearly identical years in 2010 (and there is), take the shortstop first. Alex does offer more speed, but depth at the OF position makes the Cuban Missile the more valuable Southsider.

56. Delmon Young, LF - MIN. Delmon finally broke through with some real fantasy stats in 2010, putting up career highs in every offensive category except steals. .298/21/112 included just 28 walks, but also just 81 strikeouts, which is extremely impressive given Delmon's super-aggressive approach. Just 25 and in a great system, Delmon's star is back on the rise.

57. Zack Greinke, SP - MIL. Zack's ERA came back to Earth then went to Mars in 2010, jumping to 4.17 from the 2.16 that absolutely baffled hitters in '09. A trade to Milwaukee means more run support and a better division to pitch in, so expect a return to his normal 3.50 ERA and as many as 20 wins in his first NL season.

58. Corey Hart, RF - MIL. Corey wore his prescription sunglasses at night and during the day in 2010. The result was Hart's career year (.283/31/102) following his career worst in 2009. He's not much of a 20-20 threat anymore, but owners will trade steals for the increased power in a PBR.

59. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - BOS. Ellsbury moved into elite fantasy territory with 70 steals in 2009, but a devastating rib injury Schrute'd his 2010. He's healthy, and should lead off for the Red Sox this year. Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis and Ortiz are sure to drive him in 100+ times and 70 steals may not be his ceiling.

60. Billy Butler, 1B - KC. Billy is a pure hitter. Owners hoping for he would take the next step from .301/21/93 in his breakout '09 found out just how pure a hitter he is in 2010. Butler took what pitchers gave him and raked to a .318 clip, but at the cost of six fewer homers. His drop in RBI from 93 to 78 can be attributed to the dismal Royals' mix, but for a hitter like Billy a bit more protection will spark lots more production.

61. Jered Weaver, SP - LAA. After posting a career high 4.33 in 2008, Jered has lowered his ERA by more than half a run in each of the past two seasons. The anemic Angels turned his 3.01 into just 13 wins in 2010, but the return of Kendry Morales and the addition of Vernon Wells will provide more support on both sides of the ball.

62. Tommy Hanson, SP - ATL. After his stellar debut in 2009 (11-4 in 21 starts), owners were expecting a lot more than 10 wins from Tommy in 2010. In a down year, Hanson went 10-11 with a 3.33 ERA in 34 starts. On an up year, he's among the pitching elite. See me. Feel me. Touch me. Heal me.

63. Michael Stanton, OF - FLA. Giancarlo Cruz Michael "Mike" Stanton made his major league debut on June 8, 2010. In 100 games, the 20 year-old clubbed 22 homers, drove in 59 and even added 5 steals in 359 at-bats. A strained quad has kept him out of spring action for over a week, but the Marlins know what they have in Stanton and will take it easy with him. Stanton will be set to replace Dan Uggla in the Marlins' cleanup spot by Opening Day, and whether or not he improves on his .260 average will be irrelevant if he hits .260/36/100.

64. Mat Latos, SP - SD. Mat dominated hitters in 2010. The 6'6" 23 year-old held opposing hitters to a .217 batting average, resulting in a 2.89 ERA and 189 K's in 184 innings. Improving on 14 wins will be a challenge pitching for the now Adrian-less Padres, but throwing half his games at PetCo is a nice plus for this future ace.

65. Neftali Feliz, RP - TEX. Would you rather have 200 very good innings or 70 outstanding innings? It's a quandary all teams face when dealing with pitching super-prospects, and it's one the Rangers played exactly right in 2010. Neftali Feliz was groomed as a starter, but was deemed more valuable as a lockdown closer, and finished Rangers' games all the way to the World Series. Texas still views Feliz as a starter long-term and are stretching him out this spring to join their rotation. Draft Mr. Happy as an ace closer with the chance of being a front-line starter; he throws 98mph with a free and easy delivery and will dominate hitters regardless of what role he's in.

66. Martin Prado, 2B/3B/LF - ATL. The first utility player comes in at pick 66. While there's no telling where Prado will play the majority of games this season, his 2B eligibility puts him near the top at the position. "The Devil Wears" Prado was born in the same town as Miguel Cabrera, also in 1983 (Maracay, Venezuela), which may help explain his lifetime .307 average.

67. Casey McGehee, 3B - MIL. The Fun-Run continued for Casey in 2010, as his owners were rewarded with a .283/23/104 batting line that matched Evan Longoria's (.284/22/104). It has all come together for McGehee and Milwaukee is loaded up for a big offensive output in 2011.

68. Drew Stubbs, CF - CIN. Stubbs got owners to look past a .255 average in his rookie year by putting up 22 homers and 30 steals. If Drew progresses in any category, he'll be well worth your mid-round selection.

69. Derek Jeter, SS - NYY A lifetime .314 hitter, Jeter showed signs of decline in 2010 with a .270/10/67/18 batting line, hitting below .290 for the first time in his 14-year career. At 37, he's still in the top of the Yankees' lineup, is just one year removed from hitting .334, and is also one of the hardest working players in the game. Expect a rebound.

70. Justin Morneau, 1B - MIN. Justin was on his way to another monster season (.345/18/56) when a concussion cut his year short in early July. Healthy headed into 2011, the Twins' other MVP is a 1B you can run with.

71. Brian McCann, C - ATL. Brian McCann has been on a Vision Quest for over a year. If he can get back to seeing the stitches, he'll be a monster in his age-27 season.

72. Paul Konerko, 1B - CWS. Konerko had a career year at age 34. While this has happened before, it's rare for a player with a resume like Paulie. His .312/39/111 earned him the 12th overall ranking in Yahoo! in 2010, and while it's unfair to expect a repeat, he's a strong option for teams that want to wait on 1B.

73. Pablo Sandoval, 3B - SF. Along with Justin Upton, Sandoval was one of the biggest letdowns of the 2010 season. A year after hitting .330/25/90, Kung Fu Panda nearly had to turn in his nickname when rumors swirled about a possible demotion to the minors. He ended the year as a part-time player on the World Series winning Giants, finishing at .268/13/63. Pablo lost over 30 pounds in the offseason and is raking in camp, so look for a rebound year and get a high-ceiling player at mid-round value.

74. Michael Young, 3B - TEX. Young has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy over the past eight seasons. In 2010 he hit like a 3B by racking up 291 total bases and a .284/21/91 line. Expect a similar year.

75. Vernon Wells, OF - LAA. Vernon is back in the fantasy mix after three years of being pedestrian or worse from '07-'09. His rebound 2010 (.273/31/88) was followed by a trade to Anaheim; at 32 and with $86 million left on his contract, that seems about right.