RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Tenth Edition (91-100)

Every year, a few former first rounders slip into the middle rounds for reasons other than their age or sharp and sudden decline. This year, owners have the ability to stock their shelves with former firsties like canned peaches. The question is, should they? Hanley and Reyes have surely been taken in the top 5 and will likely be drafted in the teens and 20′s, but both guys are big risks. A-Rod and Carl Crawford used to call the first round home and this year will go much later, but Alex gets tested now and Carl’s wrist is a lingering problem. The right side of the Phillies’ infield represents the last chance to snag a previous perennial and as the last two to go, Utley and Howard offer the most value among the former elites.

91. John Axford, RP – MIL. With a 2.48 ERA and .204 opponents’ batting average against him in 2010, Axford didn’t ask for the closer’s role. He took it. He followed his 24-save rookie season with 46 saves in 48 chances with a 1.95 ERA and 86 K’s in 73.2 innings and held opposing hitters to a .212 average. He’ll continue to get tons of hitters hacking, and starters Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum should produce a good amount of ninth inning leads again in 2012.

92. Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B – BAL. In his first year in Baltimore, Mark managed to keep his strikeout total under 200 for the first time in his four-year career. Just two years removed from hitting .260/44/102/24 for the D-Backs, Reynolds clubbed 37 HR in his first season in the pitching-heavy AL East. Still just 28, if he ever gets it together pitch selection-wise he goes from dangerous to scary.

93. Brett Gardner, LF – NYY. Gardner got off to a slow start for the Yanks in 2011, hitting .194 with four steals in April. He eventually got it going, snagging 28 bases over a three-month stretch while hitting .301, .317 and .289 in May, June and July. 47 and 49 steals in the last two years have made Gardner a constant in the Yankee lineup. Even without a move to the leadoff spot, Brett’s elite speed and knowledge of the metric system give him a legitimate shot at 60+ swipes.

94. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B – BOS. Kevin went from you kill us to you’re killin’ me at some point in 2008. In three years since, he has averaged 380 at bats, and last year his injuries affected his performance for the first time, as his average dipped to a career-low .258. If new skipper Bobby Valentine can get 1000 combined at bats from Youkilis and Crawford, he’ll still be managing ballgames in October.

95. Matt Wieters, C – BAL. We wish Matt had a Twitter account. If he did, we could gently point out, first that we’re big fans, and second that he happened to maul to a .339 clip with a 1.124 OPS batting righty last year, and hit just .237 from the left side with a .665 OPS. Plenty of righty bats are actually better facing RHP, which begs the question of how dominating Matt could be if he went to hitting righty full time.

96. Chase Utley, 2B – PHI. Every second baseman in the league used to chase Utley. From 2005-2009, Chase either hit .300, hit 30+ HR or drove in 100+ runs, and in his career-best 2006 season he did all three. Now 33, it’s possible that Utley has gotten old young, as he’s failed to top 425 at bats in each of the past two seasons. The Phillies plan is to go easy on him in spring training so he’s fresher during the year. Our plan is to wait on him until at least the 10th round just in case he returns to form.

97. Ryan Howard, 1B – PHI. Ryan Howard started out as a temp at the Scranton branch. He started the fire, invented a website, became the youngest VP in Dunder-Mifflin history, ripped off the company, hit rockbottom and eventually got redemption. While TV Ryan Howard’s rise, fall and resurrection may not be an exact analogy for the Phillies’ Ryan Howard, the parallels are there. While we’re at it, the creative minds at The Office must be baseball fans, specifically the 1986 NLCS. It’s all about Mike Scott bossing around Dwight and Darryl.

98. Jimmy Rollins, SS – PHI. For the last 11 years we’ve enjoyed watching Rollins band the Phillies together. In ten of those seasons Jimmy has gotten more than 550 at bats. Sure, .268/16/30 isn’t spectacular, but he should lead off again this year and will be followed by a string of proven RBI men.

99. Alexei Ramirez, SS – CWS. Things seem to affect Alexei. Winning baseball and, to a large extent winning fantasy baseball is about being good enough that you’re better than the weather. You’re better than the injuries. You’re better than the blown calls. You’re better than the bad bounces. Every team has those. Every player has those. Alexei has the natural ability to be one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball, we just don’t know what effect the departure of Ozzie Guillen and Joey Cora will have on him. Our guess is he’ll be more relaxed under new manager Robin Ventura, which is always a good thing for hitters.

100. Shane Victorino, CF – PHI. We know there will be good fantasy years to be had in Philadelphia, we’re just not positive who will lead the way. Of the Phils that will slip in drafts, Victorino may be the best value. He’s younger than Utley, Howard and Rollins, is on a contract year, and has 20-30 potential if he can keep himself on the field for 550 at bats.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Ninth Edition (81-90)

Over the course of the season, bounces and breaks will go for you and against you. Games get rained out. Players get tossed. Games go into extra innings. Umpires blow calls. Official scorers are biased. With so many pivotal moments of the fantasy season up to pure chance, the one thing we can ensure goes our way is the name of our team. As students of karma, we take the “walk softly and carry big sticks” approach to smack-talk, and recommend a similar kill-you-with-kindness approach when picking a team name. Points are scored at various levels and to various degrees among our peers, with the goal of securing a permanent residence at the corner of Humorous and Original. Variations of baseball team names are bran flakes on our scale; better to go with a play on players’ names, Bourn/Uggla, for example as both a Conan-esque self-jab and a thinly veiled Frost/Nixon reference. Ok, maybe not that thinly veiled. Film (Little Neddy Goes to War), music (Instant Shwarma), obscure television shows (Daktari) can provide some great team names, and any notion to reference WKRP in Cincinnati should be met with little resistance. Dr. Johnny Fever sounds like a great fantasy team name. It’s that easy.

81. Gio Gonzalez, SP – WAS. For White Sox GM Kenny Williams, Gio is the one that got away. Twice. He’s also the one he got. Twice. Williams snared Gio out of high school as a supplemental round pick in 2004, then traded him with Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome in 2005. Williams then reacquired Gonzalez from Philadelphia, along with Gavin Floyd in exchange for Freddy Garcia. Before he could make a major league start for Chicago he was dealt to Oakland in 2008 as the primary piece in the package that brought back Nick Swisher. Don’t let Gonzalez get away from you. Once. He’s posted nearly identical seasons averaging 200 IP, 3.18 ERA, 184K and 15 wins in the past two years and the move from Oakland to Washington will not prevent a three-peat.

82. Madison Bumgarner, SP – SF. The Giants’ southpaw pitched his way through a mad bummer of an April, in which he was 0-4 with a 6.17 ERA, and finished at 13-13 with a 3.21 ERA and 191 K’s in 204 innings. His 9-4 record with a 2.52 ERA after the break was more along the lines of what GM Brian Sabean had in mind for Bumgarner, who turns 23 this August.

83. Billy Butler, 1B/DH – KC. Butler has been productive since his arrival in KC back in 2007. A .297 lifetime hitter who turns 26 this April, much of Billy’s success has come in mediocre lineups. This tells us two things: he’s still young enough that he hasn’t yet hit his true hitting prime, and he’ll benefit from having Hosmer to share the load in the middle of the Royals’ order. Perhaps Butler’s greatest service to fantasy owners in 2011 were the 11 games he started at first base, granting him eligibility at the position in most formats for 2012.

84. Yovani Gallardo, SP – MIL. Gallardo has made 30+ starts in each of the past three seasons, increasing his win total each year. In 2012 he set personal marks with 17 wins, a 3.52 ERA and 207 Ks, and will look to build off those numbers in his age-26 season.

85. Zack Greinke, SP – MIL. Greinke rebounded from a 10-14 year in 2010 to finish at 16-6 in his first year in Milwaukee. His 3.83 ERA was better than 4.17, but lightyears away from the almost non-existent 2.16 of his magical 2009. While it’s likely 2009 is his ceiling, he’ll get closer than he got in ’10 and ’11.

86. Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/OF – LAA. Throughout his career, Kendrick has been known as a “guy who just might win a batting title someday.” After hitting .321 and .306 in half-seasons in ’07 and ’08 that seemed to be Howie’s path, but he’s dipped to .285 over the past three years, adding power to his game in 2011 with 18 HR. We’ll take the swap.

87. Joe Mauer, C/1B – MIN. If fantasy is any indicator, and it’s not, the Twins are in for a rough year. The first Gemini off our board is Joe Mauer, and he comes with a healthy amount of risk. Unfortunately for Mauer, the risk has been the only healthy thing about him over the past three seasons. Back to full strength heading into his age-28 season, Mauer Pauer may be the only show in two cities, but it’s a good one.

88. Buster Posey, C – SF. In his short career, Posey has gone from Best in Show to Waiting for Guffman. No longer Dazed and Confused, the House of Yes should be open again in 2012. All extended Parker Posey metaphors aside, don’t miss out when Superman Returns.

89. B.J. Upton, OF – TB. At 28, some ballplayers are just getting their first shot in the majors. Some feel like they have been here for ages. B.J. debuted all the way back in ’04 and was up for good in ’07. He now has five full seasons on the back of his card, and last year regained his power stroke adding 23 HR to 36 steals for the Rays. His .258 lifetime batting average is actually flattering, as he’s hit .241, .237 and .243 over the past three seasons. If he can hit .260 he’s a value, if he can hit .280, he’s a stud.

90. Ichiro, OF – SEA. Ichiro’s incredible streak of 10 consecutive 200+ hit seasons ended in 2011. In his 11th season in Seattle, Ichiro endured the worst of his professional career. He hit below .303 for the first time, finishing at .272, got on base at less than a .350 clip for the first time with a .310 OBP, and slugged below .386 for the first time with a .335 SLG%. At 38, it’s certainly reasonable to guess that the decline will continue, but we don’t. 40 steals last year means his wheels are far from shot, and we’re betting it was just a horrid year for the Mariners and it finally had an effect on Ichiro. 2012 will be a better year for the M’s and is a contract year for the surefire hall of famer. “They say the Jet’s lost a step or two, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks here.” – S. Smalls

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Eight Edition (71-80)

Of all the statistical categories we are targeting on draft day, saves are usually the most attainable in-season. Our strategy is to rate closers lower because of the high injury risk at the position and the subsequent high number of save-getters that will emerge during the year. In head-to-head leagues, passing on relief pitchers opens up more picks to stockpile position players and starters who will win you more of the other categories more of the time. Even in rotisserie leagues we advise that a great bullpen can be built with with late-round picks and one or two shrewd April pickups.

71. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS – CLE. Asdrubal obliterated his previous career highs across the board, but at 26 we’re not ready to deem 2011 his career year. Even if he doesn’t surpass the production of his breakout campaign, expect his numbers to look a lot more like the .273/25/92/17 he put up last season than his totals from years previous.

72. Jhonny Peralta, SS – DET. In his first full year in Detroit, Jhonny realized the dreams that the Indians had for him since his breakthrough 2005. Maybe it was being in a better lineup. But with Sizemore, Hafner, V-Mart and Choo around for much of his Cleveland tenure that seems unlikely. Maybe it was being around Miguel Cabrera, a truly elite righty bat. Most of the offensive talent around Jhonny were predominantly left handed hitters, so watching Miguel’s routines and talking about approach may have made the difference. Whatever the reason, Jimmy Leyland will take .299/21/86 again this year, and is undoubtedly expecting even more from his shortstop.

73. Matt Moore, SP – TB. 2011 will be the year Matt Moore cements himself as THE Matt Moore in the state of Florida. Even though the Dolphins draft strategy may do that on its own, Matt is the early favorite for Rowengartner honors in the junior circuit. That Joe Maddon handed him the ball and that he responded with a 7-inning 2-hit gem at Texas in Game 1 last year shows how polished he already is.

74. Craig Kimbrel, RP – ATL. In 2010 Kimbrel’s first major league action, in which he posted a 0.44 ERA with 40 K in 20.2 innings, was enough to earn him the primary closer’s role in Atlanta heading into 2011. It seemed unfair to Kimbrel to project those numbers over a full season, but the southern fireballer actually made good on those projections. He owned the ninth, posting 46 saves and and striking out 127 in 77 IP with a 2.10 ERA. A couple of blown saves in September cost the Braves the playoffs, meaning it’s plausible Craig is entering 2012 with a chip on his shoulder.

75. Mariano Rivera, RP – NYY. It feels like 42 years since MLB retired Jackie Robinson’s number, when just Moes Rivera and Vaughn and Butch Huskey were permitted to continue wearing it. Now 42, number 42 was barely touchable again in 2011, posting a microscopic 1.91 ERA and notching 44 saves with a minute 8 free passes. The all-time saves leader has gotten better with age, sporting a sub-2 ERA in 8 of the last 9 years.

76. Jose Valverde, RP – DET. Even if news were to come out that Valverde’s real name is World B. Free, he’d still be Papa Grande. With one of the best seasons as a closer in history, Jose became the second-most popular JV in Tiger Town. It’s nearly impossible for him to repeat the perfect 49 saves in 49 opportunities, but the addition of Prince should ensure a plethora of chances again in 2012.

77. Jonathan Papelbon, RP – PHI. Papelbon’s move from Boston to Philly shouldn’t do much to one of the top closers in the game. If there’s any impact, it’s a plus that he’s faced far fewer NL hitters over his career, so he should have the advantage as they get used to facing him.

78. C.J. Wilson, SP – LAA. Wilson’s relocation from Texas to Anaheim earned him $77.5 million McChickens but it also earned him 4 or 5 starts against the Rangers every year. Replacing the Angels with the Rangers on the schedule may result in a slight bump in ERA, but he should get run support and will still get his full helping of starts against the A’s and M’s.

79. David Ortiz, DH – BOS. Big Papi joined Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Pedroia as non-culprits on offense for the Red Sox in 2011. Enjoying a nice resurgence over the past two seasons, David hit .309/29/96 including .329 vs. lefties. If Crawford and Youkilis can get it going for new skipper Bobby Valentine, Boston will have six top-flight bats in their lineup and Papi will have loads of chances to be big.

80. Brian McCann, C – ATL. We don’t know what happened to McCann in the second half in 2011. After mashing at a .310 clip with 15 HR in the first half, he tanked out with a .203/9 line after the break. Still, .274/24/71 is more than serviceable from the catcher’s spot, and to see him at his best is to witness one of the best hitters in the game, not one of the best hitting catchers in the game. It’s unfortunate that some of the best hitters will always have their offensive numbers limited by the physical nature of the position.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Seventh Edition (61-70)

Spring Training is just a few days away, which means the first numbers of 2012 will soon start to roll in. But what to do with these numbers? Are spring stats worth reading into? Yes. If a player is performing well in the early going it means he’s healthy, which is huge. Also, spring baseball is still baseball, meaning hitters want to hit. Hitters always want to hit, so if a pitcher is getting outs he’s doing something right. Sure, some of the players are minor leaguers, but there are competitions going on across all levels of each organization for starting jobs, rotation slots and roster spots; these are players pitching and hitting for their very livelihoods, so even if their talent may not be top notch, youngsters’ efforts during camp can’t be questioned. The spring stat to not read into is if a proven pitcher is getting knocked around. It’s a rare opportunity for these guys to work on things against live hitters, (who want to hit, mind you) knowing that they are assured a rotation or bullpen spot. In the most general terms, read in to all success and ignore proven players’ slowish starts. If an unproven is having a bad spring, he’s not making the big club and he’s not worth drafting.


61. James Shields, SP – TB. One of the toughest pitchers in the game, Shields has been solid for the Rays in every season of his 6-year career. Perennially limited by his AL East address, James stayed in the zone all year in ’11, destroying his personal bests across the board and leading the way past Boston and into October baseball. As a general rule, it’s usually best to not overpay for a pitcher the year after he had “the” year. If you were wary about drafting Ubaldo or Greinke the year after their monster seasons, you did well. Take a similar strategy on Jamie in 2012. Don’t overpay.

62. Eric Hosmer, 1B – KC. Hosmer is nasty. He had the best rookie year for a Royal since Bob Hamelin, banging out a .293/19/91 line for the regal ones, and the guarantee that he won’t follow the pied piper and have a letdown sophomore season is the hoss himself. Watching him play a full game is like watching a yule log of competitiveness. He’s out to lead the Royals back to relevance. Starting….now.

63. Ian Kennedy, SP – ARI. Kennedy lived up to the promise the Yankees saw when they drafted him in 2006. Ian dazzled, baffled, battled and bulldogged his way to a 21-4 mark, leading the D-backs to a division title. It’s unfair to expect that he’ll get all the breaks again this year, but his stuff is legit and most of his starts will be made in the pitcher-friendly ballparks of the NL West.

64. Alex Avila, C – DET. When Detroit drafted Avila in the fifth round of the amateur draft, it wasn’t because his dad is their VP of operations and his kid needed a job after college, it was because he wouldn’t have been there in the sixth. In his first full season, AA was a reliable battery mate for the Tigers staff and gave them a big charge by hitting .295/19/82 in 141 games. With Victor Martinez out for the year, expect an even bigger workload in 2012.

65. Adam Jones, OF – BAL. Jones was part of the five-player package sent from Seattle to Baltimore for the services of Erik Bedard back in ’08. Although Sherrill was useful, Tillman hasn’t panned out yet and Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler probably never will, even if it was just Jones for Bedard straight up it was still a good deal for the O’s. .280/25/83/12
is pretty close and in some ways better than Andrew McCutchen‘s line from last year, and McCutch is going much higher in drafts.

66. David Price, SP – TB. David managed just 12 wins for the Rays in ’11 despite a 3.49 ERA. Five starts against the Yankees and five against the Red Sox will do that to a guy. He’s in for around the same number of starts vs. the beasts of the AL East again in 2012, and the Jays and Orioles can hit a bit too. If he ever moves to the NL, he goes from an ideal number two starter to a true ace.

67. David Wright, 3B – NYM. Wright will surely go higher than 67th overall in your league. Let him. In the past three seasons, Wright has averaged 18 HR and 19 SB while hitting .282, a far cry from his .325/30/107/34 career year in 2007. Shortened fences at Citi Field will keep homers on the brain, and anything on the brain has typically been bad for Do-Right’s numbers. He’s the only Mets bat worth owning, which in and of itself further depreciates his value. The departure of Reyes and Beltran will make returning from a back injury and returning to top form difficult for David.

68. Shin-Soo Choo, OF – CLE. The Choo train was slowed by injuries in 2011. A true 5-tool talent, he’s looking to rebound from a career-worst .259/8/36/12 and get back to the nearly identical .300/20/86/21 and .300/22/90/22 he put up in ’09 and ’10. Apparently the passing of Kim Jong Il has calmed the need for Choo in the South Korean army, making fantasy leagues the only place he’ll be drafted this year.

69. Freddie Freeman, 1B – ATL. Fantasy owners got Freddie for free last year, either drafting him in the late rounds or adding him off the free agent wire. Not happening this year after Freddie stayed steady his entire rookie year hitting .282/21/76. His teammate Heyward got more ink and his other teammate Kimbrel got the rookie hardware, but Freddie is the first Braves youngster off our board.

70. Ben Zobrist, 2B/RF – TB. Zobrist rebounded from a down 2010, mixing in more good streaks than bad and finishing with a.269/20/91/19 line for the Rays. He’s now a threat to make a run at 20-20 every year, establishing himself as a legit fantasy option at second. The 46 doubles he added to his 20 HR in 2011 make it reasonable to expect his power numbers to improve again, and could approach the career high 27 he hit in 2009.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Sixth Edition (51-60)

Having a game plan on draft day is generally a good thing (it means you have done some prep) but it can also be dangerous. We recommend doing the homework and skipping the game plan for one reason: 90% of the picks won’t be made by you. You could enter your draft with a vision of your team and start making unnecessary reaches if a few of “your guys” get taken early, and you might miss out on guys who slip because you’re locking up players that can be had later. The reality is, you will have to watch your rivals draft your favorites. It’s inevitable. We all know this going in. It doesn’t matter that you used to walk Miguel Cabrera to his bus stop every day when he was a little kid and owned him since he first got called up in ’03. Someone else will own him this year, and the sooner we can make peace with this reality, the closer we have already gotten to our goal. The best approach is the simplest; always draft the best player on the board. If you end up with a surplus at a position you’ll have depth, potential trade chips and play keep-away from the rest of your league.


51. Brett Lawrie, 3B – TOR. One of the top prospects in the game, Lawrie did not disappoint in his first major league action. At 21, Brett electrified his fellow Canadians by hitting .326 with 6 HR in his first month, finishing at .293 with 9 HR and 7 SB in 150 at bats when a finger injury ended his season. Lawrie for Shawn Marcum was a great move for Toronto; they swapped a quality pitcher for an everyday player with the potential to be one of the game’s best.

52. Cole Hamels, SP – PHI. Hamels had a career year in his age-27 season, registering personal bests with a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .214 opponents’ batting average. As awesome as he was, the most remarkable stat for Hamels was that he went just 14-9 for the 102-win Phillies. Cole rejoins fellow aces Halladay and Lee in a rotation that should be good for 3 wins (or better) every turn again in 2012.

53. Yu Darvish, SP – TEX. When the Rangers bid over $50 million just to talk to the best pitcher in Japan, they effectively said to the rest of the league, “the change in your pocket isn’t enough. Forget Yu.” Those other GMs can forget signing the half-Iranian hurler at any point in the near future, which is right around the time he should be going nuclear. History shows that unhittable Japanese imports are least hittable in their first year, making this the one to grab Darvish at a bargain compared to where he’ll go in 2013.

54. Alex Gordon, LF – KC. It’s taken nearly 30 years, but the Royals once again have a good group of fantasy players. Wait, did they have fantasy baseball back in ’85? Oh right, it was called rotisserie and there was actually chicken involved. Back to the point, Gordon finally broke through in 2011 by hitting .303/23/87/17, and finds himself at the top of the KC talent totem.

55. Dan Haren, SP – LAA. Since joining the Angels, Dan Haren has put up a heavenly 3.02 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP, and has held opposing hitters to a .236 average. Dan’s career best 192-33 K/BB ratio resulted in a 16-10 record for the Halos in 2011 and he should make a run at 20 in ’12.

56. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B – WAS. Zimmerman has put up quality full seasons in four of his first six. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best third basemen in the game, and should get more opportunities to produce with an improving supporting cast in DC. Still just 27, it’s likely that he’s able to put the injuries behind him, and it’s equally likely that we have yet to see his ceiling.

57. Paul Konerko, 1B – CWS. Consistency spelled with a K. It’s been 13 seasons since the Reds traded Paulie for Mike Cameron, and he has been outstanding for the White Sox in 11 of them. After an injury-shortened 2008, he’s found the fountain of youth. He blasted a surreal .312/39/111 at age 34 and backed it up with .300/31/105 at 35 for an underwhelming Sox club in ’11. Konerko’s skills haven’t deteriorated and he’s actually become an even smarter hitter, meaning we’re not scared of 36. He might hit that many homers.

58. Matt Cain, SP – SF. In 2011, Cain was able to put up numbers similar to his uber-teammate Tim Lincecum. Raising Cain’s standing as a fantasy staple was his 12-13 mark, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 179 K, which stacked up nicely against The Freak, who finished a rare non-Cy campaign at 13-14, 2.74/1.21 with 221 K. While it’s unlikely that their numbers will be this close again this year, there is room for both starters to improve in 2012.

59. Carl Crawford, OF – BOS. Like Dan Uggla, Carl Crawford pulled off the rare offseason trifecta of moving to a better team with a better ballpark to hit in while staying in the same division. Like Dan, he absolutely tanked in the first half, but Carl never got off the mat. His first year in Boston was a complete waste and a lingering wrist injury has now put him in jeopardy of missing Spring Training and the start of the season. On the second year of a 7/$142 million deal, Crawford now has to prove that that he’s not an old 30.

60. Alex Rodriguez, 3B – NYY. A significant portion of A-Rod’s lifetime production can be attributed directly to his usage of medicinal quality hair care products. These hair treatments have vaulted his numbers into hallowed territory, of this we are certain. When asked to comment if he had ever engaged in any behavior that toed the line of legality his only comment was, “I don’t want FOP, dammit. I’m a Dapper Dan man!” The league’s decision to begin testing for both “FOP” and “Dapper Dan” and a body-less .276/16/62 in 2011 make us skeptical of his ability to even approach career norms at age 36. He’ll make $29 million this year and is under contract through 2017, meaning he’s probably going to have at least one more good one, and logic dictates it would be the youngest year he’s got left. Which is this one.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Fifth Edition (41-50)

Sometimes fantasy logic is simple. The DH rule helps AL lineups turn over more than NL lineups over the course of the season. We’re not saying draft all Orioles, but the DH has allowed a few AL teams to create some 9-deep scenarios for opposing pitchers, resulting in more frequent 5 and 6 at-bat games. Texas is where it’s at, offering up 8 bats worth drafting and their primo studs won’t even cost you a first rounder. The Montero-for-Pineda swap leaves the Yankees at 8 bats worth owning; V-Mart out and Prince in keeps Detroit at 7 and the Red Sox have 6 fantasy bats. These are the teams where we advise doubling up and having more than one piece in your lineup. In the National League, only the Marlins, Reds, Braves and Nationals offer opportunities to double up in this way, but the chances to do so are fewer, and their monster games will be limited by pitcher’s slot at bats. With Albert and Prince now joining Miguel in the Junior Circuit, the 2012 All Star lineups are already lopsided on paper, so adjust your strategy accordingly.


41. Michael Bourn, CF – ATL. A man is Bourn! He’s a man with wheels. Then along comes you, take him on a contract-year…All extended 80′s TV theme song parodies aside, there’s a guy you take and a guy not taken; the choice is up to you, my friend. Makin’ your way in the league these days takes everything you’ve got. Wouldn’t you like to find a way? Move on up. Take Bourn and find your team’s identity, issue the ultimatum and hit the road to supremacy.

42. Carlos Santana, C/1B – CLE. Santana has the look of a real mauler at the plate. He’s a naturally gifted switch hitter with an advanced batting eye. He should take the next step offensively this season to sport a big batting average to go along with big production. And unlike the other Carlos Santana, he looks nothing like the late Moammar Ghadafi.

43. Pablo Sandoval, 3B – SF. Reports that Sandoval actually ate his hamate bone last season were grossly underreported. Despite that tragedy, Pablo rebounded from the broken hand in a big way, hitting .315/23/70 in just 426 at bats. When asked if he had resorted to krav maga to get his numbers up, the Kung Fu Panda replied, “I don’t know, I’m just smashing the balls.”

44. Brandon Phillips, 2B – CIN. Originally a Montreal farmhand, Brandon was dealt by Omar Minaya (along with Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee) to the Tribe for Bartolo Colon. Years later, an established Brandon is on a contract year, and while he may be able to get something done before the season, he’s preparing for this year like will hit the market after it.

45. Desmond Jennings, OF – TB. Being Tampa’s top prospect is kind of like being the best Simpsons episode. It means you’re damn good, you’re in loads of good company and not everyone is in agreement. The difference between Jennings and Homer vs. the 18th Amendment is there isn’t any pressure on Rex Banner to perform in 2012. His work is done. Desmond’s is just beginning, so let’s project his .259, 10 HR and 20 SB out to .259/20/40 for 2012, a conservative estimate given it’s double his output in 247 at bats, and a full season for a leadoff hitter would be more like 600.

46. Michael Morse, 1B/LF – WAS. M-I-C (see you real soon, baseball) K-E-Y (why? because you homered again) M-O-R-S-E. Membership in the Mickey Morse Club exploded in 2011. He made good on his .289/15/41 in half an ’09 by clobbering to the tune of .303/31/95 in his first full major league season at age 29. His pronounced crouch gives the 6’5″ slugger surprisingly good plate coverage, so it’s not unreasonable to expect that he hits a productive .290+ again this year.

47. Rickie Weeks, 2B – MIL. It came to a decision between Brandon and Rickie in ’11 and RomoBall bet on Brandon to be there all year. Weeks indeed missed significant time, playing in just 118 games and putting up a disappointing .269/20/49 line. This year, Weeks comes in with no Braun for the first 50 games and no Prince at all. Rickie’s aggressive approach reduces his reliance on protection in the order, but it can’t be denied that having Braun and Fielder behind you results in better pitches to hit. We’d love to see him bat leadoff for the Brew Crew this year, who will want to get the homer happy 2B as many at bats as they can.

48. Jay Bruce, RF – CIN. Bruce took a step forward in power and a step backward in batting average in 2011, finishing with a .256/32/97 line for the Reds. A repeat would make Jay a fine 5th round choice, and we expect him to exceed last year’s totals in his age-25 season. Good lineup. Great hitter’s park. Excellent pick.

49. Matt Holliday, LF – STL. Holliday actually seemed better without Pujols in 2011, and the Cards are hoping he continues that trend now that Albert is gone for good to Los Angeles…Anaheim. Wherever. The World Champs went from Old School to just old this offseason, bringing back Lance and adding Carlos Beltran to go with the 32 year-old Holliday who is inked long term. 33 comes after 32 and the numbers go up after that, so grab him this year and hope the Cards are out to prove they are more than Albert Inc. and not the Hangover Part II.

50. Jon Lester, SP – BOS. The Red Sox are betting that Bobby Valentine improves on their 90-72 record. More wins for the Red Sox will surely translate into more wins for their ace lefthander, who is coming off a 15-9 mark in a down year in the city of beans.