RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Fourth Edition (31-40)

Fantasy owners who always draft the feel-good stories rarely claim the big prize. Playing to win means you may not always want to hang out with all the players on your roster, but ask anyone who took a shot on has-been Lance Berkman or also-ran Mike Morse early last year and odds are they ended at or near the top of their league. While we want to stay ahead of the curve and collect all the guys whose ceiling we haven’t seen yet, we have to pick our spots. A few youngsters make it into the top 40, but remember that a reach is only a reach if the player doesn’t produce. If someone says it’s a reach on draft day, that’s just a comment.


31. Dan Uggla, 2B – ATL. All signs pointed to Uggla having a huge year in 2011. Florida’s decision to deal him to their in-division rival had Braves fans salivating over 81 games at Turner Field for the slugging second baseman more than lamenting the loss of Omar Infante. In one of their salary-cutting sprees the Marlins deemed themselves unable to resign Uggla, but should have dealt with one of the 25 teams not in the NL East. Uggla didn’t make the Fish pay in 2011, hitting the same .233 against them as he did everyone else, but he finally got hot and hit 21 bombs after the break to finish with a career high 36. While he’ll always be streaky, Uggla did hit a career-best .287 in 2010; if he can hit to his lifetime .258 average, this season will be an absolute monster.

32. Mike Napoli, C/1B – TEX. When the Angels traded Napoli to Toronto for Vernon Wells they likely didn’t imagine he would be shipped to their rival Texas four days later. Napoli got off to a bad start hitting just .232 before the break, but pounded the baseball in the second half hitting an epic .383 with 18 homers in 214 at bats. 30 HR in 369 at bats is just a Kinerian pace, and now that Prince has landed in Detroit, he has the fantasy gaga combination of a first basemen’s numbers and games played with catcher eligibility.

33. Mark Teixeira, 1B – NYY. Teixeira looks like he’s trying to hit home runs. He takes a deep breath, fills his cheeks with air like Dizzy Gillespie on every pitch and lets out a mighty ‘mmboof’ on each swing. After hitting .252 over the last two seasons with a dreadful .341 OBP in 2011, we’d like to smash those cheeks like Blutarski. Still, there’s no arguing with Mark’s results in the power category and there’s always the chance he dials it up and hits .280.

34. Michael Young, 1B/2B/3B – TEX. Michael Young played all over the diamond in 2011 including 14 starts at second base, which should be enough to earn him 2B eligibility for 2012 in your league. He’s great in dailies where he can be plugged into various slots, but that’s just bonus. He hit .338 last year and is the most consistent guy in the Ballpark. A top level 2B in a great lineup.

35. Nelson Cruz, RF – TEX. All athletes risk injury, and to a great extent all major leaguers are at the same level of risk. Nelson is an exception. He always seems to get nicked up and land at around 475 at bats, teasing what he could have done with a full complement of plate appearances. 2012 is a contract year for Nelson, so our bet is that he’s spent this offseason working on his conditioning. Ha-ha.

36. Ryan Braun, LF – MIL. Ryan has a few things working against him heading into this season. He will likely miss the first 50 games for failing his testosterone test and he won’t have Prince protecting him. Most importantly, if his suspension is upheld and he was indeed cheating, how much did the juice increase Ryan’s brawn? The upside here is obvious, and the good news is that you’ll draft outfield depth to cover the first 50 games and have a very motivated individual for the last 100.

37. Starlin Castro, SS – CHC. Starlin by starlight gave Cubs fans a thrill in his second year, hitting a .307/10/66/22 line with 91 runs scored in his age-21 season. Theo Epstein at the top of the organization makes it a whole different ballgame for the Cubbies, and yes the cliché is allowed if it’s also a double entendre. (A negative times a negative equals a positive!). All extended Stand and Deliver metaphors aside, the Cubs now have the ganas. It’s a long road for an organization in need of fundamental change in pretty much all areas, but it’s also baseball and the players on the field should get some bounce out of working for the man who ended the Red Sox drought and now sets out to end the longest World Series drought ever.

38. Elvis Andrus, SS – TEX. Once Atlanta’s top prospect, Elvis left the building along with Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison in exchange for Mark Teixeira at the ’07 deadline. At the ’08 deadline the Braves shipped big Teixy to Anaheim for Casey Kotchman. Kotchman is a legend in Tampa/St. Pete. Legend. Elvis hit .279 with 37 steals last year, and with Neftali and Matt helped get Texas to the World Series, where Atlanta might have gotten had they never made that trade. Or had they gotten anything close back for Teixeira.

39. Stephen Strasburg, SP – WAS. Strasburg came back from Tommy John surgery and tossed up a 1.50 ERA over 24 innings at the end of 2011. He enters 2012 completely healthy and primed to put his ridiculous filth on display for a full season. Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson and John Lannan comprise a neat rotation for the Nats, who are looking to get serious under Davey Johnson.

40. Andrew McCutchen, CF – PIT. McCutch is an outstanding centerfielder and the centerpiece of the Bucs offense, and that’s the drawback with drafting him. He’s limited by his surroundings and in 2011 took a step backward with a .259 average after hitting .286 in his first two major league seasons. He did increase his HR total from 16 to 23, so maybe he was trying to do it all himself and that’s to blame for the drop in average. Andrew is a true threat to go 20/30 this year, but getting to 100/100 in RBI and runs will be tough as a Pirate.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Third Edition (21-30)

Fantasy championships aren’t won in the first three rounds, but they are lost there. Over the first two rounds we have done our best to minimize risk, knowing we can’t afford a bust with one of our top two picks. In the third round, we are still in search of write-it-down guys that are sure to produce at-worst passable stats, but we also open up our board to slightly riskier, high-ceiling players looking to vault themselves back into elite territory in 2012.


21. Evan Longoria, 3B – TB. Evan Longoria firmly reestablishes the ‘n’ in 2012. After putting in complete seasons in ’09 and ’10, Evan hobbled through a good amount of the 133 games he played in 2011, managing just a .244 average to go along with 31 HR and 99 RBI; still monster totals from the hot corner. He returned to health and form in September and blasted the Rays into the postseason and we expect a healthier season and .280/30/100 in 2012.

22. Adrian Beltre, 3B – TEX. 487 at bats in 124 games resulted in a .296/32/105 campaign for Beltre in 2011, which was more productive than the 28 HR and 102 RBI he put up in 100 more at bats for Boston in 2010. Spell check insists his name is “Belter,” but we’ll stay with his spelling. It’s like theatre and theater and we’ll leave it at that. Point is, this guy can flat-out rake. He can get down on one knee and hit it out of Jellystone Park. And that’s a cartoon.

23. Josh Hamilton, LF – TEX. When he’s right, he’s one of the most dominant offensive forces in the game. Hamilton’s inability to play a full season keeps him out of the top 20, but he still put up a useful .295/25/94 line in 121 games in 2011 and is just one year removed from his AL MVP-winning .359/32/100 in 133 games in 2010. Hamilton’s contract expires after this season meaning he might just sniff 150 games.

24. Jose Reyes, SS – MIA. Reyes was the first huge signing of the offseason and his arrival in Miami is as big a win for the Fish as it is a loss for the Mets. He’s electric, a true 5-tool player that can do it all on a baseball diamond, but he has missed more than his share of time due to injuries over his career and has also at times put himself ahead of his team. Ozzie Guillen‘s job is to break through to Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez and somehow get them to remember having fun playing the game. Ozzie Guillen has a tough job. But he’s the right man to do it.

25. Ian Kinsler, 2B – TEX. Kinsler rejoined the 30-30 club in 2011 after a speed-power outage in 2010 when he managed just 9 HR and 15 SB. He has now gone 30-30 in two of the past three years as a 2B and is behind only Cano and Pedroia at the position.

26. Tim Lincecum, SP – SF. The ’08 and ’09 NL Cy Young winner lowered his ERA from 3.43 in 2010 to 2.74 in 2011, holding opposing hitters to a .222 average and striking out 220 in 217 innings. A repeat of any one of his first four seasons will make him a worthwhile choice in the third round and perhaps the best choice to lead your staff in 2012 because of the value he brings to your team by allowing you to draft two bats before taking your first pitcher.

27. Hunter Pence, RF – PHI. A .292 hitter for his career, it won’t take Pence long in Philly to push it over .300. In 2011, Hunter hit .300 in 100 games for the woeful Astros offense before being traded to the Phillies, where he hit .324 the rest of the way, knocking out 11 homers in just 207 at bats after hitting 11 in 399 ABs in Houston. Even with an ailing Ryan Howard out until at least May and a fading Chase Utley in need of a big rebound, Philly is a major upgrade for Hunter, who has averaged 156 games since becoming a full-time player in 2008.

28. Hanley Ramirez, SS – MIA. When Hanley Ramirez agreed to be Godfather to Jose Reyes’ daughter, he didn’t say “also, can you come to Miami, take my position and spot in the batting order and do it for more money than I make?” It’s a hot lump of coal to swallow for Hanley, but the reality is that Reyes is the far superior defensive shortstop, the more prototypical leadoff hitter and the potential catalyst for a Marlins team that is clearly making a push for the postseason in the innaugural year of their new ballpark. If the two can co-exist they will both be values in the third round.

29. CC Sabathia, SP – NYY. CC Sabathia has thrown at least 180 innings every year of his career, a streak that reached 11 in ’11 when he went 19-8 with a 3.00 ERA while fanning 230 in 237 frames. He’s one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, evidenced by single-digit losses in each of the past five seasons, and he’s in for another run at 20 wins with single-digit losses in 2012.

30. Felix Hernandez, SP – SEA. If King Felix was a Ben & Jerry’s flavor he’d be “Everything but the…Wins.” 13 in 2010 followed by 14 in 2011 have disappointed his owners but his good peripherals keep him among the fantasy aces. We don’t expect much in the way of run support again in 2012, but we do expect Felix to lower his ERA from a 4-year high 3.47, even with Albert Pujols‘ arrival in his division.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - Second Edition (11-20)

In the first round you draft your flagbearer. The guy you would go to war with. The guy you would follow into hell on foot. Okay, that might be pushing it, but the point is, this is war, and you need a flagbearer. Someone’s got to carry the flag. In the second round, draft this year’s second round; don’t select former elites that are either aging, injury risks or on 50-game suspension (read: A-Rod, Hanley, Reyes, Braun). Open your draft board to include the first tier of starting pitchers, but given the wealth of talent at the position, don’t be the owner to start a run on pitching.


11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS – COL. You know I don’t take a Tulo lightly. The only stat we don’t like is his at bats; they’re too low. Troy got to 30 HR and 100 RBI in about 100 ABs less than a full season’s worth in 2011 and this seems as good a year as any for him to play 150+ games.

12. Mike Stanton, RF – MIA. Stanton put up a .262/34/87 line in his first full season despite various leg injuries and an eye issue that cost him not only at bats, but at bats at 100%. The Marlins’ new ballpark and a hopefully healthy Hanley and Jose should translate into a huge year for Stanton, who is a solid bet to hit 40 HR in 2012.

13. Dustin Pedroia, 2B – BOS. This guy may have been the reason Bobby Valentine came to Boston. He’s a gamer, he never gets cheated on his swings, and he will produce no matter where he’s asked to hit in the lineup. And yes, every Red Sox players’ analysis will include some mention of Bobby Valentine. Deal.

14. Justin Verlander, SP – DET. Just 5-3 after 12 starts, JV went 19-2 after June 1st, finishing 24-5 with 250 strikeouts, a 2.40 ERA and .920 WHIP in 251 innings, with four complete games, two shutouts and one no-hitter. Justin’s brilliance earned him Cy Young and MVP honors, becoming the first pitcher to take home both trophies since Dennis Eckersley in ’92. He also became the number one pitcher in fantasy.

15. Clayton Kershaw, SP – LAD. In 2011, Kershaw evolved from a ‘tough-to-hit’ ’6-inning’ ‘high K-rate’ ‘no-decision’ type guy to the second ranked pitcher in the game. Clayton went 21-5, had a microscopic 2.28 ERA and fanned 248 in 233 innings, which were all tops in the NL. Ok, Ian Kennedy tied him with 21 wins, but we’re not drafting Ian Kennedy 15th now are we.

16. Roy Halladay, SP – PHI. Halladay was brilliant again in 2011, showing no signs of decline in his age-34 season. Doc posted a 2.35 ERA while going 19-6 (including 8 complete games) for the Phillies, and while he absolutely can repeat in 2012, we like the younger Verlander and the far younger Kershaw a droplet or two more.

17. Jered Weaver, SP – LAA. The ace race isn’t over yet. Jered has lowered his ERA by at least .60 in each of the past three seasons, dropping at a rate proportional to opposing managers’ jaws. The two important stats to consider when drafting Jered to lead your staff are this: he held opposing hitters to a .212 batting average over 235.2 innings last year. Meaning he’s tough to hit and they had plenty of chances to try and figure him out. Even if he breaks his ERA-lowering trend and just repeats his 2.41 ERA, he’ll surely repeat his 18-8 mark and probably break 20 wins with Albert on board.

18. Cliff Lee, SP – PHI. Five teams in three years is tough to pull off. Even for Todd Zeile. The hired gun has been parley’d more than Captain Jack Sparrow, but settled in right where he left off in Philly in ’09. Lee joined Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay and Weaver as the only pitchers to throw 230+ innings with a sub-2.41 ERA in 2011; a feat that may not be accomplished by anyone in 2012, but these guys are the best bet. Give Weaver the edge over Lee with Philly’s offense on the downtick.

19. Carlos Gonzalez, LF – COL. CarGo says he’s full-go for spring training, which tells us that he will improve on the .295/26/92/20 line he put up last season. While he may not return to the heights of his .336/34/117/26 breakout 2010, anywhere in between represents a good buy at just about any point in the second round. If he’s your guy, secure in round two.

20. Justin Upton, RF – ARI. Justin’s most important number in 2011 was 159. Games played. For the first time in his still very young career, he topped 140 games played, and in doing so also notched career highs with a 31/88/21 HR/RBI/SB line. Justin has put his disappointing 2010 behind him and while he may always be a streaky player, we’re willing to bet that his streaks start and end at .290 or better in 2012.

RomoBall Fantasy Preview - First Edition (1-10)

The Testing Era is in full swing. And miss. You’re out. Again. Sit down. Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, CC Sabathia, Jamie Shields and Cole Hamels all checked in with sub-3.00 ERAs in 2011 and all could repeat in 2012. None of them find themselves in the Romo/Ramblings Fantasy Top 10. The reason? Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Ian Kennedy, Matt Cain, Dan Haren, Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke and the boatload of guys poised for huge years throwing the baseball. If not for Prince, you could fit the elite bats in the league in a phone booth. Premier hitters are now that much more valuable, so grab some lumber with your first pick.

The 2012 Romo/Ramblings Fantasy Rankings are chemically engineered to win you ANY league, regardless of format. The players have been ranked according to their up-to-date baseball efficiency rating, or “UBER” score.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B – LAA. Albert, Angel of Anaheim (Triple-A) is both a major league win for LA and totally Busch by St. Louis. Despite seeing his average dip to .299 and falling short of 100 RBI for the first time since Trebek shaved his moustache, Albert overcame a broken wrist in 2011 to lead St. Louis to their second championship of the now-defunct APE (Albert Pujols Era). A killer in interleague, we have no anxiety at all about Al in the AL.

2. Matt Kemp, OF – LAD. In 2011, Matt Kemp stopped doing Rihanna and started doing everything else. For those that voted Ryan Braun in as NL MVP (before he tested positive), Braun had similar (if not worse) numbers, a better lineup, a better ballpark and Fielder for protection while Kemp had Peter Noone. Something tells me he’s in for something good in 2012.

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF – BOS. There wasn’t much in-between for the Red Sox in 2011. Leading the charge of the players that “did it” is Jacoby. Bobby Valentine has a reputation for getting the most out of his players, but that will be tougher than a diner steak with Ellsy in ’12. But if he does repeat, or take even just another small step forward on what projects to be a seriously up year for Boston, you’ll regret not making him your first round pick.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B – DET. Here’s how you go from last to first: For the last 8 years, Miguel has been a first round pick. At 29, there’s actually reason to believe he could get better, as his batting averages are trending up over the past three seasons (.324, .328, .344).

5. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF – TOR. Bautista followed his eye-popping breakout 2010 (.260/54/124) with a season that was in many ways better for the Jays in 2011. Joey Bats raised his average to .302, still led the majors with 43 homers and in doing so became the first hitter to repeat as ML Home Run King since McGwire in ’98-’99. And that’s the only thing he and McGwire have in common. Except their profession. Also that they both like “Storage Wars.”

6. Curtis Granderson, CF – NYY. Curtis found it in 2011. He didn’t “return to form” or “finally get comfortable in New York,” he worked that hard and changed his approach. Detractors will point to his .262 batting average, but 41 HR, 119 RBI, 25 SB and a self-eye-gouging 136 runs carried his owners for long stretches in 2011. On an overall philosophy note, all of these guys are going to hit between .260 and .340 and there’s really no telling which from year to year, so don’t draft for batting average, but rather, draft for the player’s dynamism at their position.

7. Robinson Cano, 2B – NYY. Position dynamism at its finest, and right on cue! How ’bout that? (Mel Allen). Robinson is the best 2B in the game today and is making his case for being the best 2B in New York or anywhere since Robinson (Jackie). Cano offers 1B-type production from the significantly shallower 2B slot.

8. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B – BOS. For years, Gonzalez had been the character Fleming cut out of The Wizard of Oz, singing “If I only had a lineup” to himself in the cavernously lonely trailer known as PetCo. All extended film metaphors aside, “Baby, we had always wondered. Wondered, what’d ever become of him. If he got into a better lineup, what a hitter he’d turn out to be.” Ok, ALL extended metaphors aside, the guy is legit. Draft with confidence.

9. Joey Votto, 1B – CIN. Miguel’s 2007 trade to Detroit followed by Adrian’s departure for Boston and now Albert’s relocation to Anaheim have left Joey the best first baseman in the senior circuit. If Prince goes to the AL this offseason, he’ll really have it all to himself with Ryan Howard ailing and just Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt to challenge him. Expect more of a 2010 than 2011 from Votto in 2012, which means (you guessed it) he’ll be livin’ on the air!

10. Prince Fielder, 1B – FA. Prince’s behavior seems to suggest that he’d prefer not to be ‘the’ guy, yet he’s definitely seeking the-guy money. Wherever he lands, his value won’t be affected much; the low end being Seattle and the high end being Texas. On a non-fantasy note, it does beg the question: does having Prince on your team make financial sense? For if this is so, why wouldn’t the Brew-has call their old buddies at the Miller Brewing Company and propose a deal by which the Brewers are loaned money to pay Prince’s salary, which will surely be returned in ticket revenue, apparel sales, and sales of the very beer they produce? ITTET (In these tough economic times), would not Prince Fielder be as safe an investment as any? Particularly now with Ryan Braun facing a 50-game ban, the Brewers should really pick up the phone and do a Brenda Lee.