Fantasy owners who always draft the feel-good stories rarely claim the big prize. Playing to win means you may not always want to hang out with all the players on your roster, but ask anyone who took a shot on has-been Lance Berkman or also-ran Mike Morse early last year and odds are they ended at or near the top of their league. While we want to stay ahead of the curve and collect all the guys whose ceiling we haven’t seen yet, we have to pick our spots. A few youngsters make it into the top 40, but remember that a reach is only a reach if the player doesn’t produce. If someone says it’s a reach on draft day, that’s just a comment.
31. Dan Uggla, 2B – ATL. All signs pointed to Uggla having a huge year in 2011. Florida’s decision to deal him to their in-division rival had Braves fans salivating over 81 games at Turner Field for the slugging second baseman more than lamenting the loss of Omar Infante. In one of their salary-cutting sprees the Marlins deemed themselves unable to resign Uggla, but should have dealt with one of the 25 teams not in the NL East. Uggla didn’t make the Fish pay in 2011, hitting the same .233 against them as he did everyone else, but he finally got hot and hit 21 bombs after the break to finish with a career high 36. While he’ll always be streaky, Uggla did hit a career-best .287 in 2010; if he can hit to his lifetime .258 average, this season will be an absolute monster.
32. Mike Napoli, C/1B – TEX. When the Angels traded Napoli to Toronto for Vernon Wells they likely didn’t imagine he would be shipped to their rival Texas four days later. Napoli got off to a bad start hitting just .232 before the break, but pounded the baseball in the second half hitting an epic .383 with 18 homers in 214 at bats. 30 HR in 369 at bats is just a Kinerian pace, and now that Prince has landed in Detroit, he has the fantasy gaga combination of a first basemen’s numbers and games played with catcher eligibility.
33. Mark Teixeira, 1B – NYY. Teixeira looks like he’s trying to hit home runs. He takes a deep breath, fills his cheeks with air like Dizzy Gillespie on every pitch and lets out a mighty ‘mmboof’ on each swing. After hitting .252 over the last two seasons with a dreadful .341 OBP in 2011, we’d like to smash those cheeks like Blutarski. Still, there’s no arguing with Mark’s results in the power category and there’s always the chance he dials it up and hits .280.
34. Michael Young, 1B/2B/3B – TEX. Michael Young played all over the diamond in 2011 including 14 starts at second base, which should be enough to earn him 2B eligibility for 2012 in your league. He’s great in dailies where he can be plugged into various slots, but that’s just bonus. He hit .338 last year and is the most consistent guy in the Ballpark. A top level 2B in a great lineup.
35. Nelson Cruz, RF – TEX. All athletes risk injury, and to a great extent all major leaguers are at the same level of risk. Nelson is an exception. He always seems to get nicked up and land at around 475 at bats, teasing what he could have done with a full complement of plate appearances. 2012 is a contract year for Nelson, so our bet is that he’s spent this offseason working on his conditioning. Ha-ha.
36. Ryan Braun, LF – MIL. Ryan has a few things working against him heading into this season. He will likely miss the first 50 games for failing his testosterone test and he won’t have Prince protecting him. Most importantly, if his suspension is upheld and he was indeed cheating, how much did the juice increase Ryan’s brawn? The upside here is obvious, and the good news is that you’ll draft outfield depth to cover the first 50 games and have a very motivated individual for the last 100.
37. Starlin Castro, SS – CHC. Starlin by starlight gave Cubs fans a thrill in his second year, hitting a .307/10/66/22 line with 91 runs scored in his age-21 season. Theo Epstein at the top of the organization makes it a whole different ballgame for the Cubbies, and yes the cliché is allowed if it’s also a double entendre. (A negative times a negative equals a positive!). All extended Stand and Deliver metaphors aside, the Cubs now have the ganas. It’s a long road for an organization in need of fundamental change in pretty much all areas, but it’s also baseball and the players on the field should get some bounce out of working for the man who ended the Red Sox drought and now sets out to end the longest World Series drought ever.
38. Elvis Andrus, SS – TEX. Once Atlanta’s top prospect, Elvis left the building along with Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison in exchange for Mark Teixeira at the ’07 deadline. At the ’08 deadline the Braves shipped big Teixy to Anaheim for Casey Kotchman. Kotchman is a legend in Tampa/St. Pete. Legend. Elvis hit .279 with 37 steals last year, and with Neftali and Matt helped get Texas to the World Series, where Atlanta might have gotten had they never made that trade. Or had they gotten anything close back for Teixeira.
39. Stephen Strasburg, SP – WAS. Strasburg came back from Tommy John surgery and tossed up a 1.50 ERA over 24 innings at the end of 2011. He enters 2012 completely healthy and primed to put his ridiculous filth on display for a full season. Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson and John Lannan comprise a neat rotation for the Nats, who are looking to get serious under Davey Johnson.
40. Andrew McCutchen, CF – PIT. McCutch is an outstanding centerfielder and the centerpiece of the Bucs offense, and that’s the drawback with drafting him. He’s limited by his surroundings and in 2011 took a step backward with a .259 average after hitting .286 in his first two major league seasons. He did increase his HR total from 16 to 23, so maybe he was trying to do it all himself and that’s to blame for the drop in average. Andrew is a true threat to go 20/30 this year, but getting to 100/100 in RBI and runs will be tough as a Pirate.
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