In the first round you draft your flagbearer. The guy you would go to war with. The guy you would follow into hell on foot. Okay, that might be pushing it, but the point is, this is war, and you need a flagbearer. Someone’s got to carry the flag. In the second round, draft this year’s second round; don’t select former elites that are either aging, injury risks or on 50-game suspension (read: A-Rod, Hanley, Reyes, Braun). Open your draft board to include the first tier of starting pitchers, but given the wealth of talent at the position, don’t be the owner to start a run on pitching.
11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS – COL. You know I don’t take a Tulo lightly. The only stat we don’t like is his at bats; they’re too low. Troy got to 30 HR and 100 RBI in about 100 ABs less than a full season’s worth in 2011 and this seems as good a year as any for him to play 150+ games.
12. Mike Stanton, RF – MIA. Stanton put up a .262/34/87 line in his first full season despite various leg injuries and an eye issue that cost him not only at bats, but at bats at 100%. The Marlins’ new ballpark and a hopefully healthy Hanley and Jose should translate into a huge year for Stanton, who is a solid bet to hit 40 HR in 2012.
13. Dustin Pedroia, 2B – BOS. This guy may have been the reason Bobby Valentine came to Boston. He’s a gamer, he never gets cheated on his swings, and he will produce no matter where he’s asked to hit in the lineup. And yes, every Red Sox players’ analysis will include some mention of Bobby Valentine. Deal.
14. Justin Verlander, SP – DET. Just 5-3 after 12 starts, JV went 19-2 after June 1st, finishing 24-5 with 250 strikeouts, a 2.40 ERA and .920 WHIP in 251 innings, with four complete games, two shutouts and one no-hitter. Justin’s brilliance earned him Cy Young and MVP honors, becoming the first pitcher to take home both trophies since Dennis Eckersley in ’92. He also became the number one pitcher in fantasy.
15. Clayton Kershaw, SP – LAD. In 2011, Kershaw evolved from a ‘tough-to-hit’ ’6-inning’ ‘high K-rate’ ‘no-decision’ type guy to the second ranked pitcher in the game. Clayton went 21-5, had a microscopic 2.28 ERA and fanned 248 in 233 innings, which were all tops in the NL. Ok, Ian Kennedy tied him with 21 wins, but we’re not drafting Ian Kennedy 15th now are we.
16. Roy Halladay, SP – PHI. Halladay was brilliant again in 2011, showing no signs of decline in his age-34 season. Doc posted a 2.35 ERA while going 19-6 (including 8 complete games) for the Phillies, and while he absolutely can repeat in 2012, we like the younger Verlander and the far younger Kershaw a droplet or two more.
17. Jered Weaver, SP – LAA. The ace race isn’t over yet. Jered has lowered his ERA by at least .60 in each of the past three seasons, dropping at a rate proportional to opposing managers’ jaws. The two important stats to consider when drafting Jered to lead your staff are this: he held opposing hitters to a .212 batting average over 235.2 innings last year. Meaning he’s tough to hit and they had plenty of chances to try and figure him out. Even if he breaks his ERA-lowering trend and just repeats his 2.41 ERA, he’ll surely repeat his 18-8 mark and probably break 20 wins with Albert on board.
18. Cliff Lee, SP – PHI. Five teams in three years is tough to pull off. Even for Todd Zeile. The hired gun has been parley’d more than Captain Jack Sparrow, but settled in right where he left off in Philly in ’09. Lee joined Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay and Weaver as the only pitchers to throw 230+ innings with a sub-2.41 ERA in 2011; a feat that may not be accomplished by anyone in 2012, but these guys are the best bet. Give Weaver the edge over Lee with Philly’s offense on the downtick.
19. Carlos Gonzalez, LF – COL. CarGo says he’s full-go for spring training, which tells us that he will improve on the .295/26/92/20 line he put up last season. While he may not return to the heights of his .336/34/117/26 breakout 2010, anywhere in between represents a good buy at just about any point in the second round. If he’s your guy, secure in round two.
20. Justin Upton, RF – ARI. Justin’s most important number in 2011 was 159. Games played. For the first time in his still very young career, he topped 140 games played, and in doing so also notched career highs with a 31/88/21 HR/RBI/SB line. Justin has put his disappointing 2010 behind him and while he may always be a streaky player, we’re willing to bet that his streaks start and end at .290 or better in 2012.
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