Spring Training is just a few days away, which means the first numbers of 2012 will soon start to roll in. But what to do with these numbers? Are spring stats worth reading into? Yes. If a player is performing well in the early going it means he’s healthy, which is huge. Also, spring baseball is still baseball, meaning hitters want to hit. Hitters always want to hit, so if a pitcher is getting outs he’s doing something right. Sure, some of the players are minor leaguers, but there are competitions going on across all levels of each organization for starting jobs, rotation slots and roster spots; these are players pitching and hitting for their very livelihoods, so even if their talent may not be top notch, youngsters’ efforts during camp can’t be questioned. The spring stat to not read into is if a proven pitcher is getting knocked around. It’s a rare opportunity for these guys to work on things against live hitters, (who want to hit, mind you) knowing that they are assured a rotation or bullpen spot. In the most general terms, read in to all success and ignore proven players’ slowish starts. If an unproven is having a bad spring, he’s not making the big club and he’s not worth drafting.
61. James Shields, SP – TB. One of the toughest pitchers in the game, Shields has been solid for the Rays in every season of his 6-year career. Perennially limited by his AL East address, James stayed in the zone all year in ’11, destroying his personal bests across the board and leading the way past Boston and into October baseball. As a general rule, it’s usually best to not overpay for a pitcher the year after he had “the” year. If you were wary about drafting Ubaldo or Greinke the year after their monster seasons, you did well. Take a similar strategy on Jamie in 2012. Don’t overpay.
62. Eric Hosmer, 1B – KC. Hosmer is nasty. He had the best rookie year for a Royal since Bob Hamelin, banging out a .293/19/91 line for the regal ones, and the guarantee that he won’t follow the pied piper and have a letdown sophomore season is the hoss himself. Watching him play a full game is like watching a yule log of competitiveness. He’s out to lead the Royals back to relevance. Starting….now.
63. Ian Kennedy, SP – ARI. Kennedy lived up to the promise the Yankees saw when they drafted him in 2006. Ian dazzled, baffled, battled and bulldogged his way to a 21-4 mark, leading the D-backs to a division title. It’s unfair to expect that he’ll get all the breaks again this year, but his stuff is legit and most of his starts will be made in the pitcher-friendly ballparks of the NL West.
64. Alex Avila, C – DET. When Detroit drafted Avila in the fifth round of the amateur draft, it wasn’t because his dad is their VP of operations and his kid needed a job after college, it was because he wouldn’t have been there in the sixth. In his first full season, AA was a reliable battery mate for the Tigers staff and gave them a big charge by hitting .295/19/82 in 141 games. With Victor Martinez out for the year, expect an even bigger workload in 2012.
65. Adam Jones, OF – BAL. Jones was part of the five-player package sent from Seattle to Baltimore for the services of Erik Bedard back in ’08. Although Sherrill was useful, Tillman hasn’t panned out yet and Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler probably never will, even if it was just Jones for Bedard straight up it was still a good deal for the O’s. .280/25/83/12
is pretty close and in some ways better than Andrew McCutchen‘s line from last year, and McCutch is going much higher in drafts.
66. David Price, SP – TB. David managed just 12 wins for the Rays in ’11 despite a 3.49 ERA. Five starts against the Yankees and five against the Red Sox will do that to a guy. He’s in for around the same number of starts vs. the beasts of the AL East again in 2012, and the Jays and Orioles can hit a bit too. If he ever moves to the NL, he goes from an ideal number two starter to a true ace.
67. David Wright, 3B – NYM. Wright will surely go higher than 67th overall in your league. Let him. In the past three seasons, Wright has averaged 18 HR and 19 SB while hitting .282, a far cry from his .325/30/107/34 career year in 2007. Shortened fences at Citi Field will keep homers on the brain, and anything on the brain has typically been bad for Do-Right’s numbers. He’s the only Mets bat worth owning, which in and of itself further depreciates his value. The departure of Reyes and Beltran will make returning from a back injury and returning to top form difficult for David.
68. Shin-Soo Choo, OF – CLE. The Choo train was slowed by injuries in 2011. A true 5-tool talent, he’s looking to rebound from a career-worst .259/8/36/12 and get back to the nearly identical .300/20/86/21 and .300/22/90/22 he put up in ’09 and ’10. Apparently the passing of Kim Jong Il has calmed the need for Choo in the South Korean army, making fantasy leagues the only place he’ll be drafted this year.
69. Freddie Freeman, 1B – ATL. Fantasy owners got Freddie for free last year, either drafting him in the late rounds or adding him off the free agent wire. Not happening this year after Freddie stayed steady his entire rookie year hitting .282/21/76. His teammate Heyward got more ink and his other teammate Kimbrel got the rookie hardware, but Freddie is the first Braves youngster off our board.
70. Ben Zobrist, 2B/RF – TB. Zobrist rebounded from a down 2010, mixing in more good streaks than bad and finishing with a.269/20/91/19 line for the Rays. He’s now a threat to make a run at 20-20 every year, establishing himself as a legit fantasy option at second. The 46 doubles he added to his 20 HR in 2011 make it reasonable to expect his power numbers to improve again, and could approach the career high 27 he hit in 2009.
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