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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Hiccups and Pickups: Week 6

FALLING DOWN

Michael Turner. Through six games, Turner has only two fantasy performances, neither of them monsters. He's averaging 78 yards per game, has just one touchdown and has topped 20 carries once. Turner makes a neat buy-relatively-low candidate, (no player taken in the top ten can be had for nothing) with a home game vs. Cincinnati, a bye, and then an easier-looking second half schedule.

Miles Austin. Two duds in his last three games is frustrating for Austin, whose unbelievably high ceiling makes him unbenchable. Despite 20 yards Week 3 at Houston and 12 yards Week 6 at Minnesota, Austin gets the sell-high tag thanks to his still-stellar numbers, but Dez Bryant is emerging and Roy Williams is stealing touchdowns.

Mike Tolbert. Tolbert filled in somewhat admirably during Ryan Mathews' absence, but certainly wasn't spectacular and showed difficulty holding onto the football. Following Mathews' return to a full load on Sunday, Tolbert found himself the short-yardage ballcarrier, netting just three yards and a TD on three carries. Expect similar output from Tolbert while the Chargers have all of their backs healthy, with Mathews the workhorse, Tolbert the plow, and Sproles the change-of-pace/receiving threat. All three should see increased work if Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates are sidelined, making Mathews a nice-looking start (NE, TEN, @ HOU) for the next three weeks before the Bolts' bye.

Danny Amendola. Following his career-best 12/95 @ DET in Week 5, Amendola had many convinced that without Mark Clayton, he was the wideout to own in St. Louis. Undrafted out of Texas Tech, the 5'11" wideout/returner draws instant Wes Welker comparisons, but the emergence of Danario Alexander will return him to his early season role. Treat the one game in which he got an astounding 18 looks as an aberration, and expect more of the 5/50 games he put up with Clayton in the mix.

Kevin Walter. Walter fell short of 10 points for the third straight week, this time getting completely shut out by the Chiefs. The Texans' shift to a more balanced attack has turned Kevin Walter's looks into Arian Foster's carries, so like Amendola, throw out his 11-catch game. With Walter on the bye this week, you can safely drop him for a one-week rental, then re-acquire him if you like the @ Indy start Week 8. If you do, remember that you'd be starting the third/fourth receiving option in Houston (Johnson, Daniels, Jones) in a run-first system.

Michael Bush. Darren McFadden's expected return seals Bush's departure from fantasy lineups, though 47 yards on 20 carries against the 49ers may have done that on its own.

MERCURY RISING

Chris Ivory. The undrafted rookie was targeted by fantasy owners as a big add for Week 5, but fumbled and lost carries to Ladell Betts. Then Chris looked like Chris Johnson Week 6, as he shredded the Bucs for 158 yards on just 15 carries. Pierre Thomas doesn't seem quite ready to return, and even if he does, hasn't shown the kind of explosiveness Ivory showed last week. With a big performance vs. Cleveland, Ivory's per-game average will be a pure 99.44.

Deion Branch. When Tom Brady said that if the Pats brought back Deion Branch he'd pick him up at the airport, that was fantasy code for, "And I'll throw him a touchdown." Brady did better than that, targeting Branch 12 times and connecting on 9/98 and the first-quarter score. Randy's new address means plenty more looks for Deion, including this week at San Diego.

Pierre Garcon. This site's lack of a cedilla frustrates me almost as much as Pierre frustrated Reggie Wayne owners on Sunday night. While Reggie got 71 yards, he fell short for a lot of his owners in need of the 57-yard TD catch and 100-yard day that went to Garcon. Big play potential and his proximity to Peyton Manning make Pierre a fantasy starter after the Colts' bye this week.

Mike Williams. The 40-Year Old Virgin of the NFL, Mike Williams is actually 26, but finally seems to be getting his career started in Seattle. After tallying just 11 catches in his first four games, Mike grabbed 10 for 123 at Chicago and home vs. Arizona this week looks pretty good. In Tampa, Mike Williams keeps running hard routes all game and remains the only fantasy option worth considering for the Bucs.

Patrick Crayton. Malcom Floyd's hamstring injury may keep him out this week vs. New England, and Antonio Gates (toe, ankle) could be limited as well. This should steer the Chargers toward the running game, but will also free up looks in the passing game by default. Floyd's targets will go to Crayton and Buster Davis, and after Crayton's 100-yard performance at St. Louis, Patrick is the hot hand. Grab him if you're bye'd out at wideout this week (Wayne, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes) but if your league charges money for moves, don't pay to 'Cray.

Danario Alexander. Aren't NFL GMs great? Alexander led the nation with 113 receptions for 1,781 yards at Missouri last season, yet 32 teams passed on him even in the final rounds of the draft. Perhaps Buffalo Bills GM Buddy Nix forgot that it's risk/reward, not just risk, but the Bills have no need for a 6'5" number one wideout and they don't draft injured players (Willis McGahee), so the point is moot. The Rams took that risk by signing Alexander, whose knee is now fully healed from the Senior Bowl injury that damned his status as a prospect, and got rewarded with a 38-yard touchdown catch, among 72 yards on the day. Danario was on the field for about a third of the offensive snaps having just been elevated from the practice squad to the first team, but his role and production will grow in weeks to come if he can stay on the field.

Danny Woodhead. "Now that we've met our bigs, it's time to meet the littles!" The pint-sized Patriot gave the New England ground game "Sturdy Wings" on Sunday, as Danny has been a useful fantasy start in three straight. After scoring in wins over the Bills and Dolphins, Woodhead topped 110 yards from scrimmage on 11 carries for 63 and 5 catches for 52. Over 82,000 Yahoo! owners have added Danny today, so if you're thinking of taking a shot on the small wonder at San Diego, you're not alone.

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