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Sunday, March 6, 2011

Fantasy Baseball Preview: 26-50

26. Felix Hernandez, SP - SEA. A microscopic 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts were enough for King Felix to overcome his 13-12 record and claim the AL Cy Young in 2010. His 25th birthday this April gives him the edge over Halladay as the first pitcher selected.

27. Roy Halladay, SP - PHI. Halladay took the NL Cy Young with a 2.44 ERA and 21 Wins in 2010. If your league counts Complete Games or Shutouts, you might take Halladay ahead of King Felix.

28. Tim Lincecum, SP - SF. In the year of the pitcher (third mention) Tim's ERA jumped nearly a full run from 2.48 to 3.43. If he has the same year as David Price or Jon Lester, you'll regret taking him any higher than this.

29. Alex Rodriguez, 3B - NYY. If you've made it to pick 29, you have my permission to draft A-Rod.

30. Buster Posey, C - SF. Don't be Dazed and Confused on Draft Day. Let A Mighty Wind blow open the door to The House of Yes. For Your Consideration, Best in Show, Parker Posey.

31. Victor Martinez, C - DET. Victor will split time at DH and behind the dish for the Tigers in 2011. This should help keep him healthy and maintain his catcher eligibility for 2012. No real offensive additions to the lineup indicate he'll land at about the same .302/20/79 he finished with last year.

32. Adrian Beltre, 3B - TEX. While it's tempting to Shin-Soo choose other players ahead of Beltre, his 326 total bases in 2010 can't be ignored. As usual, Adrian's stellar .326/28/102 came on a contract year, but his move to Texas keeps him in one of the best lineups in the AL.

33. Ichiro, OF - SEA. In his ten major league seasons, Ichiro has already earned a spot in Cooperstown. He's the only player with ten consecutive 200-hit seasons, averaging 224. At 37, age becomes the only question headed into 2011, but 42 steals in 2010 (his 4th highest season total) says the wheels are fine and a dormant M's offense has plagued his run scoring. He's basically all alone again, but other than 100 runs, expect Ichiro to match any one of his previous years.

34. Shin-Soo Choo, OF - CLE. A military exemption brought sighs of relief for fantasy owners and Mrs. Choo. Shin-Soo has hit the 20-20 mark in his first two full years and has hit .300 on the number. With an improved lineup Choo can go even further, as he looks to add 100 RBI to his repertoire.

35. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - BOS. Pedroia hit .288/12/41/9 in half a season in 2010. While it's unsafe to project .288/24/82/18 in 2011, new neighbors Carl and Adrian make a career year for anyone in the Sox lineup a possibility.

36. Brandon Phillips - 2B - CIN. If you're taking a guy because he can hit you around 25 homers and knock in 90, why not take a guy who can do it as a 2B and add 25 steals? Brandon's 18-16 underwhelmed his owners in 2010, but he's with a budding offensive group and plays in a silly putty egg. He should battle Rickie Weeks for top 2B honors in NL-only leagues.

37. Kendry Morales, 1B - LAA. Injuries are never fun for fantasy owners, especially when your star gets hurt celebrating. The Halos will have to take it easy after his 30-something home run trots this year. A switch hitter with legendary power, 40 and a .300 average are not out of the question.

38. Rickie Weeks, 2B - MIL. Rickie was finally able to put it together for months, not weeks for his fantasy owners in 2010. He established career highs with 29 HR and 83 RBI, but that makes sense for a player in his age-27 season. The Brewers bring it every night with Braun, Fielder, McGehee and Hart, all hitting behind Weeks. He's a premier option at 2B heading into 2011.

39. Chase Utley, 2B - PHI. Chase keeps slipping down the board with a knee injury. He has received a cortisone shot, but isn't playing in games yet. Though he headed into 2010 as the top 2B in fantasy, he'll have to work to surpass Cano, Uggla, Pedroia, Phillips and Weeks.

40. Andre Ethier, OF - LAD. Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp entered 2010 as elite OF options. While Andre's .292/23/82 in 139 games wasn't nearly as disastrous as Kemp's .249 batting average, it was a regression from the .272/31/106 he hit in 2009. He'll likely land somewhere in between his '09 and '10 production levels.

41. Justin Upton, OF - ARI. Justin Upton has the ability to hit 40 home runs in a season. While that's not as old as saying "Howie Kendrick will win a batting title someday," it's getting there. At 23, Justin failed to take a step forward for the first time in his baseball career. After hitting .300/26/86 in '09, Upton's .273/17/69 ended after 495 at bats with a sore shoulder and the shelf. Expect a similar batting average and his power numbers to come back, with the possibility that any day it could all just click for this kid.

42. David Price, SP - TB. Following a semi-letdown in a semi-first season in 2009, David was brilliant in 2010. He amassed a 19-6 record with a 2.72 ERA and 188 strikeouts, even more impressive pitching in the AL East. David is a fine option to head up a fantasy staff in any format.

43. Jon Lester, SP - BOS. A bounceback year for Boston will result in Lester's first 20-win season in 2011. After posting 16, 15 and 19 wins from '07-'09, what's helped fantasy owners more are his single-digit losses each year.

44. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - COL. In 2010 Ubaldo put up a spectacular 2.88 ERA, struck out 214, and earned 19 wins for the Rockies against just 8 losses. For owners in expanded-category leagues, Ubaldo surrendered just 10 homers and threw four Complete Games, two of which were Shutouts. Colorado's ace is a fantasy ace.

45. CC Sabathia, SP - NYY. It looks like ol' Charleston Chew Sabathia found himself an opt out clause. 21-7, 186 K with a 3.18 ERA again this year would probably put him about where he is. He'll be pitching for the raise.

46. Josh Johnson, SP - FLA. Josh should have won 18 games in 2010. While the Marlins struggled for runs and on defense, Johnson's sparkling 2.30 ERA yielded just an 11-6 record. Draft the Marlins' hoss with confidence.

47. Adam Dunn, OF - CWS. At this point you must ask yourself if you'd rather have a complete player, or an uber-performer but in fewer categories. Adam Dunn is the uber-performer worth taking ahead of 5x5ers Heyward and McCutchen because even though he's a batting average drag, he has averaged 40 homers since 2004. Any concern about playing in the AL for the first time in his career is easily offset by joining a talented White Sox lineup and playing half his games at New Comiskey (U.S. Cellular Field).

48. Jason Heyward, OF - ATL. After all the hype and the kafuffle and the hoo-hah, the dust settled and it was time for the actual person, Jason Heyward, to go to work. Owners that leapt for that J-Hey kid instantaly saw the upside and ultimately felt the downside of what was a great rookie year by MLB standards, but not in fantasy. Expect him to improve on 2010's .277/18/72/11 line in all categories as he gets more comfortable, and remember this is a prospect with limitless potential.

49. Andrew McCutchen, OF - PIT. While maintaining his solid rookie average of .286, Andrew McCutchen made gains in every other category in 2010. If he can repeat the feat, he becomes a threat to go 20-40.

50. Hunter Pence, OF - HOU. I bet they called him "Under Pants" as a kid. That's Captain Under Pants now. HP has copied his homer total of 25 in each of his first three seasons. Last year he added 18 steals and knocked in 91 to become one of the better all around options among OFs.

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